Vészmadarak - 3 - Wadhams professzor

 Wadhams professzor és a jég eltűnése

 

 

     A média az idén is lehozta Peter Wadhams, angol professzor, klímakutató véleményét, miszerint idén, de ha idén nem, akkor jövőre biztosan elolvad szeptemberre a jég az északi sarkon. 

Nézzük, hogy a kedves professzor, (akit én, amatőr senki,  hogy merek kritizálni, ezt a neves és tapasztalt szakembert,...) hányszor mondta még ezt el, és már elnézést, de hogyan csinált sz.rt a szájából: 

1. June 27, 2008

Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer

It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.

       - 2008 június: Nagyon valószínű, hogy az idén az Északi-sarok jégmentes lesz ezen a nyáron - és ez precedens nélküli.

Mivel  a 2008-as jégkiterjedés, jóval a 2007-es fölött végzett, Wadhams professzor út visszavett egy kicsit a következő években:

2.  October 14, 2009

Arctic to be ‘ice-free in summer’

Professor Wadhams said: “The Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus view – based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperatures, winds and especially ice composition – that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, and that much of the decrease will be happening within 10 years.

- 2009 október: kb. 20 éven belül lesz jégmentes az Északi-sarok, a jég nagy része már a következő 10 évben eltűnik.

3. March 16, 2010

Further evidence for Arctic melt-down

The prediction quoted above – of an ice-free Arctic within twenty to thirty years’ time – is based on the output of just two of the IPCC models, whose results fit observed data better than those of the combined twelve. Wadhams believes that it’s a reasonably accurate prediction, if a little conservative. “What will probably happen is that the ice will first retreat quite quickly, until in about ten years we are down to a fairly small region north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, where you have thicker multi-year ice – that’s about a half or a third of the present summer area. Then that will survive longer because it is thicker and might last another twenty years. So twenty to thirty years is a good conservative figure, though I suspect that the ice will go faster than that.”

- 2010 március: 20-30 év, de gyanítom, hogy jóval hamarabb.

A két józanabb kijelentés után, megint visszatért az 1-2 éven belül üzenet:

       4. May 12, 2011

Wikileaks cables show race to carve up Arctic

The Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) which measures ice volume shows that last September there was only a quarter of the ice in the Arctic that there had been in 1979.

Prof Wadhams says in summer “it could easily happen that we’ll have an ice-free North Pole within a year or two“.

- 2011 május: egy vagy két éven belül jégmentes sarok

A 2011-es olvadási szezon után újból visszavett egy kicsit a neves professzor, de nem sokat:

        5. November 8, 2011

Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’

Arctic sea ice could completely melt away by the summer of 2015, destroying the natural habitat of animals like polar bears, one of Britain’s leading ocean experts has claimed

Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.

“It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”

- 2011 november: a 2015-ös dátum egy nagyon komoly előrejelzés (a jég eltűnését illetően) nyilatkozta a professzor.

6. August 27, 2012

Arctic sea ice reaches record low, Nasa says

Professor Peter Wadhams, from Cambridge University, told BBC News: “A number of scientists who have actually been working with sea ice measurement had predicted some years ago that the retreat would accelerate and that the summer Arctic would become ice-free by 2015 or 2016.

-2012 augusztus: 2015-2016 a következő céldátum

       7. September 21, 2012 Arctic Sea Ice: What, Why, and What Next

Peter Wadhams, who leads the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge, has predicted since 2008 that the Arctic ice could be gone in summer by 2015. He now believes there’s a chance that it could happen even sooner.

- 2012 szeptember: látva a látványos rekordot, megerősíti a 2015-ös dátumot, de úgy hiszi, hogy akár sokkal hamarabb is megtörténhet. 

         8. July 24, 2013

Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist

Professor Peter Wadhams, co-author of new Nature paper on costs of Arctic warming, explains the danger of inaction

How long do we have before the Arctic summer sea ice disappears?

Given present trends in extent and thickness, the ice in September will be gone in a very short while, perhaps by 2015. In subsequent years, the ice-free window will widen, to 2-3 months, then 4-5 months etc, and the trends suggest that within 20 years time we may have six ice-free months per year.

- 2013 július: 2015

 9.  August 2, 2013

What climate scientists talk about now

But Wadhams is even angrier about another line in that last IPCC report suggesting it could take until the latter part of this century before Arctic summer sea ice disappears almost entirely. The sea ice that covers much of the North Pole always melts a little in summer and then refreezes as winter sets in. Last summer, however, it shrank to its lowest point in more than 30 years, a much more dramatic decline than predicted. Wadhams thinks it more likely that its summer sea ice will vanish as soon as 2015.

“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,” he said, pulling out a battered laptop to show a diagram explaining his calculations, which he calls “the Arctic death spiral”.

- 2013 augusztus: ebben az évben vagy jövőre, de semmikép nem 2015 után, jágmentes lesz a sarok.

A 2013-as és 2014-es hatalmas visszaugrás után, kénytelen volt megint viszavenni:

10. November 2, 2014

Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report

“By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear. By summer, we mean September. … (but) not many years after, the neighboring months would also become ice-free.”

- 2014 November: 2020-ra a nyári hónapokban eltűnik a jég.

11. May 15, 2015

Our time is running out – The Arctic sea ice is going!

2:37 Interviewer: Is this [changed landscape of the Arctic over the past 30 years] we should be concerned about?

2:40 Wadhams: I am sure. We should be and in fact people are concerned about it. Because what it is preceding is the actual disappearing of the ice and that is something which could easily happen this year or maybe the next couple of years.

- 2015 május: az idén, vagy a következő néhány év folyamán 

12. June 5, 2016

Professor Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Cambridge University, told The Independent that the latest figures largely bore out a controversial prediction he made four years ago.

“My prediction remains that the Arctic ice may well disappear, that is, have an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year,” he said.

“Even if the ice doesn’t completely disappear, it is very likely that this will be a record low year. I’m convinced it will be less than 3.4 million square kilometres [the current record low].

“I think there’s a reasonable chance it could get down to a million this year and if it doesn’t do it this year, it will do it next year.

- 2016 június: ebben az évben eltűnik a jég, és következik a definíciója az eltűnésnek: 1 millió km2 alá esik a jégkiterjedés.  Majd hozzáteszi: de ha nem az idén, akkor majd jövőre.

Így van, Wadhams professzor! Így van...
S a média minden évben leközli ezt, elfelejtve, hogy évek óta ugyanazt közli: ha nem idén, akkor jövőre.
Mit lehet még hozzátenni? Ha valaki még az idén sem ébred fel, hogy mi folyik itt, talán majd jövőre!

Persze nem kizárt, hogy valamikor csak beválik a professzor úr jóslata és az időjárási körülmények úgy hozzák, hogy 1 millió km2 alá esik a jégkiterjedés, tehát eltűnik a jég. És akkor boldogan átveszi majd, a sokévi komoly kutatás utáni, megérdemelt Nobel-díjat.

forrás:
https://trustyetverify.wordpress.com/2016/06/10/an-ice-free-arctic-predict-early-predict-often/